Matteo Berrettini vs Casper Ruud Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Berrettini has a slight edge in second-serve points with a win rate of 48.49%, compared to Ruud's 46.67%. Could this give Berrettini an advantage in the upcoming match?
• When returning, Ruud outperforms Berrettini, winning 45.22% of second-serve return points and 25.36% of first-serve return points, compared to Berrettini's 42.93% and 20.87% respectively.
• Under pressure, Berrettini has shown better breakpoint saving abilities, successfully defending 64.41% of breakpoints, while Ruud has saved 59.91%.
• Overall, Berrettini has a slightly higher match win percentage over the last year at 67.8%, compared to Ruud's 65.63%.
• Analyzing surface preferences, Berrettini excels on grass with a 79% win rate, whereas Ruud's best surface is clay, with a 70% win rate. Grass is Ruud’s least favorable surface.
• In Main tour matches over the past year, Berrettini has been more successful, winning 71.88% compared to Ruud's 66.67%.
• Their head-to-head record is slightly in Ruud's favor, leading 4-3 in matches, and also leads slightly in set wins at 10-9.
• Notably, Ruud has won both deciding sets in their past encounters, a crucial insight if this match extends to a decisive set.
• In tiebreak scenarios, Ruud has won all three they've played against Berrettini, suggesting better nerve in high-pressure situations.
• Close examination of opponent quality over the past year shows Ruud competing against slightly higher-ranked opponents, with an average opponent rank of 62.3 compared to Berrettini's 64.64.
• Berrettini has a higher breakpoint conversion rate at 33.78%, making him marginally better at capitalizing on opportunities than Ruud, who converts 27.01%.

Editorial Prediction (May 11, 2025, UTC):

The upcoming match between Matteo Berrettini and Casper Ruud promises to be competitive given their longstanding rivalry. Both players showcase different strengths, with Berrettini having a marginal lead in second serve performance and breakpoint conversion, suggesting a slight offensive edge. However, Ruud holds the advantage in return game statistics, indicating a stronger defensive play.

Although their head-to-head records are nearly even, Ruud's success in deciding sets and tiebreaks reflects his ability to handle extreme pressure situations more efficiently. This factor could play a pivotal role if the match becomes tight.

Considering recent trends, past performances, and statistical insights, Ruud appears to have a slight edge, especially in critical and pressure scenarios. Consequently, Casper Ruud is the likely favorite to win this upcoming match, although the contest is expected to be competitive and closely fought.